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  1. #1
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    Aug 2015
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    Overcoming Uncertainty, Shocks, and Disruption with Qualitative Gro

    The global economy has now entered its sixth year of stagnation, and the growth outlook for 2017 shows a continuation of this trend. A projected stabilization in energy and commodity prices may provide a small tailwind for resource rich economies in 2017, but the medium-term trend continues to be dominated byweaker growth in key inputs, notably investment and labor supply. Modest positive signals emerge from the base scenario showing some strengthening in qualitative growth factors, such as more advanced technology, improved labor force skills, and greater productivity. But those potentially favorable factors are under pressure from ongoing political, policy, and economic uncertainties around the world. This risks further inertia caused by a wait-and-see attitude among corporates and governments. Businesses have to prepare for more disruptions from geopolitical tensions, policy uncertainty, financial market volatility, and rapid changes in technology, but they also need to stay focused on leveraging the qualitative sources of growth with investment in technology and business productivity even—or especially—in times of stagnation.

  2. #2

    Global Economy 2017

    As we all know that we enter 2017, many businesses will begin planning for the year ahead, wondering what’s in store for the global economy this year. We believe that there will be three main overarching themes. Firstly, globalization will continue to take a backseat. The resurgence of economic nationalism in some parts of the world will put World Trade Organisation rules to the test, as well as fueling geopolitical uncertainty regarding upcoming elections in Europe this year. To this end, our second theme considers that politics will drive uncertainty and economics this year. And thirdly, we think that US monetary policy will move back towards normality, with a gradual monetary tightening over the year.
    With these themes in mind, I present my key predictions for the year ahead:
    1. The US will drive growth in the G7.

    2. Core Euro zone employment will hit an all-time high, but the periphery will create more jobs.

    3. Indonesia is set to become the world’s 16th trillion dollar economy.

    4. Population growth will put pressure on the Gulf (GCC) countries to reform public finances.


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